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Futures support lower Midwest injections in September, October
Midwest inventories have all but stopped working off their surplus over the past week, but MichCon futures suggest injections could slow rapidly in September and October. Midwest inventories currently sit at 770 Bcf which is about 68 Bcf above the five-year average. The region dropped its surplus to the five-year average from 91 Bcf at the start of July to 69 Bcf by the end of the month, but has sat at 68 Bcf above average since the start of August. ANR storage in Michigan is driving these high inventory levels: it currently sits 40 Bcf above average and is accounting for 58% of the total Midwest surplus but accounts for only 26% of total capacity. MichCon futures suggest ANR storage will see less incentive to inject soon however, as September and October futures are only 22 and 18 cents cheaper than winter 2017-2018 futures. The cash to winter spread averaged 28 cents in July and 30 cents so far in August.
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